San Francisco Isn't One Market. It's Several at Once.

By Matt & Chrissy

Matt Woebcke and Chrissy Luciano make up San Francisco Luxury Group, helping buyers, sellers, and investors navigate San Francisco real estate with experienced guidance and personalized service.

By now you’ve almost certainly seen the headlines. Homes selling a million dollars over asking. Multiple offers. Buyers competing aggressively and losing out. It’s no wonder people in San Francisco are starting to ask whether they even have a chance.

Some of those stories are real. In the first six months of 2026, 144 homes in San Francisco sold for at least a million dollars over asking. The year before, that number was just eight. A huge jump.

But here’s the part that gets lost: that is not every property in San Francisco. Not even close. The city is really operating as several different real estate markets at the same time, and knowing which one you’re in changes everything.

Desirable neighborhoods mean real competition for houses. If you’re trying to buy a great single-family home in Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Noe Valley, Cow Hollow, or the Sunset, it’s genuinely competitive right now. Recent single-family sales have been averaging around 25% over asking in some areas.

A big reason is inventory: active listings were recently down more than 40% from the year before. When the right house in the right location comes along, far more buyers are chasing it than there are homes to go around, and the bidding wars follow.

Condos give buyers more negotiating power. Especially in areas like South Beach, Rincon Hill, SoMa, and downtown, where there’s more inventory and buyers simply have more choices.

Take South Beach: recent sales have been coming in around 99% of asking, with only about one in four selling above list. That’s a completely different world from a house selling 20% or 25% over. Rincon Hill tells a similar story, condos selling around 97% of asking with only a small share going over. In these neighborhoods, buyers can push. There may be room on price, room for a credit, room to keep your contingencies, or simply more time to make a thoughtful decision instead of a panicked one.

Some condos trade at 2015 prices. While single-family homes across the city sell for huge premiums, parts of the South Beach condo market are trading at values that look surprisingly familiar. In broad terms, some of today’s condo values are closer to where they were around 2010 to 2015 than to the peak of six years ago. If you bought a certain condo around 2015 or 2016, you may be looking at a value that isn’t dramatically different from what buyers were paying nearly a decade ago.

That varies a great deal by building, floor, view, parking, condition, and amenities. But the bigger point is what matters: one buyer fights through a bidding war for a house while another across town looks at condo values that have barely moved in ten years. Same city, completely different market.

The best condos still draw competition. A great condo in Pacific Heights, Hayes Valley, the Mission, or around Dolores Park can be very competitive, especially if it has parking, outdoor space, great light and views, a good floor plan, and a strong HOA.

The softer side of the condo market tends to show up when buyers have a lot of choices. Maybe several similar units are available in the same building. Maybe the HOA is high. Maybe there’s no parking. Maybe the unit needs work. Or maybe the location just isn’t pulling the demand it did five years ago. That’s where buyers get breathing room.

Asking price is not market value. Everyone loves the phrase “we sold a million over asking,” but in San Francisco the asking price doesn’t always mean what people think. This city has a long history of intentionally pricing homes below market value to attract a crowd and drive the price up fast.

If a home sells 25% or 30% over asking, that does not automatically mean the buyer overpaid by 25% or 30%. The real questions we always ask: what do the comparable sales say, how many serious buyers were actually competing, and where did those buyers ultimately land on value? The bidding war can be very real, but the asking price just doesn’t always equal the market value.

Know which market you’re in first. If you’re a buyer and these headlines have you rattled, don’t assume you need to sit out the entire San Francisco market. Start with what you’re actually trying to buy.

If you want a turnkey single-family home in Pacific Heights, Noe Valley, Cole Valley, or the Sunset, get ready for real competition. That doesn’t mean blindly overpaying. It means understanding the comps, reviewing disclosures carefully, and knowing exactly how competitive a property is before you write an offer.

If you’re more value-focused and open to condos, especially in South Beach, Rincon Hill, or downtown, some of the best opportunities in the city right now may be waiting for you.

Pricing strategy depends on property type. If you’re a seller, the lesson is almost the reverse. You can’t look at a house that sold a million over asking in Pacific Heights and assume the same thing will happen to your condo in South Beach.

The best single-family homes may be seeing extraordinary demand, but buyers are still selective. And the condo market is a different animal entirely. An overpriced condo can sit. A dated one can sit. A condo with high HOAs or a difficult floor plan can sit. Meanwhile, the house down the street that was beautifully prepared, strategically priced, and marketed correctly may draw multiple offers.

That’s San Francisco: there are two or three different stories on every single property. Not all properties are equal. Which is exactly why one headline, even one true headline, can’t tell you enough.

If you’re thinking about buying and the bidding-war stories have you worried, talk to us before you assume you’re priced out. And if you’re thinking about selling, don’t assume your home will automatically fetch hundreds of thousands over asking. We’ll show you what’s actually happening with your neighborhood and your property type, and we’ll get you the highest price the market will pay.

Reach out anytime: call or text Matt at 415-553-0206 or Chrissy at 520-591-8856, email us at info@sfluxurygroup.com, or visit blog.sfluxurygroup.com.

We’ll help you figure out which San Francisco market you’re actually in, and what that means for your next move.